Coronavirus

I haven't posted any blogposts for a while. But sometimes things happen that you want to tell the world. That keeps you awake. This time it's the Wuhan coronavirus (aka 2019-nCoV). Well this is a blog about transitioning to more sustainable mobility. Mostly about cars. Is there a link? Well, actually there is and that's exactly what I want to write about.

That Coronavirus can cause pneumonia. That's called: novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia (NCIP). And that's what kills the people that are contaminated with this virus.

Now what decides who gets pneumonia and who doesn't? Many patients have secondary conditions. Many are older people. But even seemingly healthy people can get this pneumonia and die. What they didn't tell us is that there are risk factors that can influence who can get pneumonia and who doesn't.

The #1 risk factor is smoking. Smoking kills, that's no surprise for most readers. But it also increases the risk of infections with bacteria or virusses leading to pneumonia. So if you don't want to die from this virus, then now would be a good time to stop smoking. Smoking is also the reason why more men than women get NCIP. In China by far more men than women smoke.

Research also shows that air pollution is another risk factor for developing pneumonia from infections. Not a surprise then that in Wuhan, which like many other major Chinese cities suffers from severe air pollution, this virus can be so lethal.

So we can do something about the lethality of this virus. We can stop smoking and clean up our cities. Drive cleaner vehicles for a healthier future.

Now going back to my opening sentences, you know why I needed to inform you and write this blog. Now you know, I can sleep again. Please share my post with others who may be interested in this information.

CNG vehicles drive most kilometers

According to a statistical analysis by the Dutch national statistics agency (CBS) CNG vehicles are driven the longest distance annually. Although CNG vehicles contribute only 0,2% to all distances traveled, they on average travel a distance of 26,400 km per year. Second place is diesel vehicles which drive 23,000 km/year. CNG is popular with people who drive much because they have low cost per kilometer and are more suitable for long range driving than electric vehicles.

Advances in low pressure hydrogen storage

I just read an update on LinkedIn from Mark Cannon, CTO at Hydrogen in Motion (H2M). His company works on the development of a low pressure hydrogen storage system. The hydrogen is adsorbed to a material. This technology is interesting because hydrogen is hard to store. You need a large volume of hydrogen to get the energy you need. For this reason hydrogen is stored at extremely high pressure. Such high pressure storage systems are very expensive.

Mark wrote on LinkedIn: "A year ago we successfully synthesized a material which adsorbed 4.2 wt % hydrogen and desorbed 70% of it at 50 bar and ambient temperatures. For the past year we have been focusing on improving the synthesis of this material and understanding all the mechanisms at play. We are currently adsorbing 5 wt % and releasing 80% of the hydrogen, effectively a 4 wt % material. Gravimetrically comparable to 250 - 700 bar compressed tanks but with a volumetric capacity better than 40 g/l. Now we are increasing material production for demonstration tanks for our strategic partners"

Now 4 weight percent (wt %) doesn't sound like much, but you have to realize that hydrogen is the lightest existing material on the planet. A fuel cell vehicle needs only 5 kg to drive about 500 km. So 4 wt % means that a storage system for 5 kg would weigh about 125 kg, which does not add too much weight to a vehicle. A high pressure storage cilinder for 5 kg weighs about the same.

Now of course this kind of storage technology has downsides as well. The number of filling cycles is limited. When asked Marked answered that "Early tests show 100's of adsorption/desorption cycles. " If a vehicle can drive 500 km on a tank, that means 200 cycles gives the tank a lifetime of 100.000 km.

Filling times are also important. High pressure cilinders can be filled in only 5 minutes. Mark did not mention how long it took to fill, but similar materials require hours to completely adsorb the hydrogen.

The main advantage of these systems is a much lower price. According to Mark: "Goals is to be half the price of compressed tanks of equivalent performance."

If filling times are a problem then you may end up with a hybrid system. Say a 4 kg high pressure cilinder and a 1 kg low pressure tank. The 4 kg can be filled quickly and the final kg serves mainly as an emergency supply in case the main tank is empty. If used, the emergency supply can slowly refill itself from the main tank after this has been refueled. Use as emergency supply also means that the number of filling cycles will not be an issue.

Smart vehicle to grid charging station

Electricity grid operators in the Netherlands have approved the first smart vehicle-to-grid charging station that is suitable for feed-in from vehicles to the grid. This station has been added to the Elaad's register of approved charging stations. Elaad is a collaboration of Dutch grid operators that promotes electric vehicle charging.

Last year a field test was done in Utrecht. This allowed electric cars to be used for temporary storage of solar energy for later use. The charging station is made by General Electric and is the first station to support a 3x63 A grid connection. This high current connection enables for two electric vehicles to be charged and discharged simultaneously (2x 22 kW). This gives the station high flexibility for charging and discharging vehicles rapidly when there are peaks on the electric grid.

In future the grid can also be supplemented with power form hydrogen vehicles, or solar powered vehicles. Vehicles thus play an important role in creating a smart grid that is suitable for supplying increasing amounts of sustainable electricity.

Tesla's master plan part 2

A couple of weeks ago when Tesla announced its bit to takeover SolarCity, I noted down my suspicions that Tesla would introduce a solar powered electric car. A few days later Toyota announced it's new solar powered Prius, beating Tesla to it, although with a hybrid car. A few hours ago Elon Musk seemed to confirm my suspicions as he wrote on Twitter: "Working on Top Secret Tesla Masterplan, Part 2. Hoping to publish later this week." And 2 hours later: in a tweet in response to a blogpost about the reason for the SolarCity takeover: "Kinda. Creating a seamlessly integrated Tesla battery & solar power product that looks beautiful is the reason"
Bets are still on. I don't think it's a seamlessly integrated home system. I think it's going to be an integrated system on wheels.

Nissan develops range extender on ethanol and natural gas

Nissan is developing a new drive train consisting of an electric vehicle equipped with a solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) range extender. Nissan aims to bring the technology to market in fleets by 2020. The test runs on bio-ethanol but other fuels such as natural gas can also be used. The fuel is reformed on-board to create hydrogen which is then used in a solid oxide fuel cell.

SO fuel cells more affordable than PEM fuel cells currently used in hydrogen vehicles as they don't require platinum catalysts. Bio-ethanol and natural gas/biogas are also cheaper than hydrogen and require much lower infra structure investments.

The downside of SO fuel cells are the high operating temperature which leads to higher start-up times. Also the reformer has long response times, which limits the use of SO fuel cells in vehicles to range extenders and APUs.

Next-generation Toyota Prius has solar electric drive

The next-generation Prius plug-in hybrid gets a little greener with a the rooftop solar panel for recharging the batteries. While Toyota already produces a Prius with a rooftop solar system, that panel was only used to drive the air conditioning system as apparently Toyota found it to risky to integrate this new technology into the drive system.

Sun power only amplifies the eco-car cred of one of the most efficient vehicles. The cells charge the car even when it is parked and can boost fuel efficiency by as much as 10 percent by allowing longer electric-only driving times.
Unfortunately for U.S. fans of all things green, the technology will only be offered in the Japan and European versions of the car -- at least initially. But Koji Toyoshima, chief engineer of the Prius plug-in and its standard Prius hybrid sibling, says Toyota aims to introduce the panels Stateside too. The problem: The Japan market solar panels are laid on reinforced glass sheeting that doesn’t pass America’s more stringent rollover crash tests.
Toyota doesn’t have the technology to laminate the photo-voltaic cells in a resin that won’t shatter dangerously during a rollover, Toyoshima said. But the company is working on a solution so that it can introduce the solar panels to the U.S. version of the car during its life-cycle.
In Japan, the plug-in Prius will be called the Prius PHV. Toyota has not announced whether the solar panels will be standard or optioned here.
Various uses
Aside from recharging the batteries during a standstill, the solar panels also supply electricity to accessories such as lamps, power windows and air conditioning when the car is running, Toyota says. As Toyota whittles down their cost, Toyoshima said the company hopes to introduce the solar-powered technology to other hybrids across the lineup.

Advancements in solar technology have made solar ready to be used as an additional power source for cars.
Tesla recently made a bid to purchase SolarCity - a hint that Tesla may have similar plans.

Tesla + SolarCity = Solar electric vehicle

When Elon Musk announced Tesla's takeover bid for SolarCity he talked about synergy: using solar power to charge up your Powerwall home battery. And then using that electricity to charge your Tesla car. This deal has been criticized by many because there seems to be very little synergy between his car making business and selling rooftop solar panels.
When Tesla announced construction of its own Li-ion battery factory it made sense to people: you use the batteries in cars and you can sell the same batteries for storage at home. Now the thing is: it's no different with solar panels. It has already been shown that solar panels can be used to extend the range of electric vehicles. This bid is an indication that Tesla may be considering offering solar roofs on its cars.

Hydrogen car feeding electrical grid

For the first time in Europe and possibly worldwide a hydrogen vehicle supplied electricity to the power grid. At the Green Village at the Delft University of Technology a Hyundai ix35 was connected to the electrical grid to feed it with electricity. The Green Village site is used to demonstrate new technology. The demonstration marks a step towards a hydrogen economy where excess renewable energy is converted to hydrogen and where hydrogen vehicles can supply backup power at times when there is insufficient (renewable) electricity available. This means that no conventional electric plants will be required as backup.

Many European diesels have high emissions under real driving conditions

It appears that Volkswagen is not the only one with high NOx emissions under real driving conditions. Tests performed by Deutsche Umwelthilfe (DUH) show that Opel and Renault diesels also have increased NOx emissions under normal driving conditions. DUH claims that Renault Espace diesels have up to 25 times higher emissions than allowed in Europe. In a response Renault claims that their diesels pass the test. Of course Volkswagens also pass that test. It's the difference between between emissions under real driving conditions and the test that's disturbing. Volkswagen cheated by using a cheat device. It seems that officially Renault didn't cheat. Instead the cause seems to be that Renault tests with a cold engine. Lower temperatures lead to lower NOx emissions. In real life those engines heat up over time and then emit poisonous NOx emissions that kill people. In real life we need stricter regulations to ban such practices.

VW scandal expands to gasoline cars

Only a few hours after I wrote my post yesterday, asking whether Volkswagen's dieselgate scandal would expand to gasoline cars, the news broke that it did. I noted yesterday, that a defeat device that affects engine operation may also be used in gasoline cars. As a consequence performance and fuel economy will be reduced.

In the latest scandal Volkswagen admits overstating fuel economy and as a result CO2 emissions for 800,0000 vehicles. The majority of these vehicles have diesel engines, which implies that at least some gasoline cars were also affected. Volkswagen stated that they don't know yet what caused the irregularities. So they don't know whether a defeat device was installed this time as well, but in light of earlier misdoing this seems to be the most logical explanation.

New Volkswagen violation - will scandal expand to gas powerd cars?

Earlier I described the technical details of dieselgate with regard to the EPA's September 18 Notice of Violation (NOV). Sadly Volkswagen Group's (VW) ordeal is not over yet. The EPA released a new NOV which now affects VWs 3.0 liter diesel engines.

There is a serious threat that the scandal will expand to more and more engine types and vehicle models. "ARB and EPA will continue to conduct a rigorous investigation that includes testing more vehicles until all of the facts are out in the open." This time the violation also affects Porsche which was unaffected by the earlier NOV.

Although the number of vehicles is limited (10.000 in 2014, plus an unknown additional number in 2015), the technical details are at least as disturbing as the earlier violation.

Again VW used a cheat device. This time exactly one second after the vehicle completes the initial phase of the standard test procedure, the vehicle changes to normal mode, where NOx emissions increase up to nine times the EPA standard. This time the engine cheats by running in a low NOx "temperature conditioning" mode. Engine temperatures are kept down as high temperatures increase NOx emissions.

The consequences of removing the cheat device would be a broad range of reduced performance, including reduced torque and increased fuel consumption. What's even more worrisome is that this time VW didn't just play with the post-combution exhaust cleanup. They changed the operating parameters of the engine. That method can be applied to a broad range of vehicles including those with gasoline powered engines.

Dual fuel

A dual fuel system is a system that enables engines to run on two different fuels simultaneously. In most cases this involves a diesel engine that has a gaseous fuel added, such as CNG, LNG, LPG or DME. These fuels are generally cheaper than diesel resulting in a cost reduction. Additionally these fuels promote a higher flame speed enabling the combustion energy to be transferred to the engine pistons more effectively and improving combustion. This results in reduced fuel consumption and lower hydrocarbon, carbonmonoxide and soot emissions.

For optimal results it is crucial to use an advanced electronic dual fuel system, such as the one supplied by Lisa Fuel Systems.

Dieselgate: a technical analysis

I never bothered to write a post about Volkswagen's dieselgate. But I found some conflicting stories about what this meant for people driving a Volkswagen. Will Volkswagen's fix lead to reduced torque and fuel economy?

So far Volkswagen has released few details of what they did technically, but the EPA's Notification of Violation to Volkswagen gives us an insight into what Volkswagen did and from this we can deduct what the consequences will be of fixing it.

Many media have written already that Volkswagen used a 'cheat device'. According to the EPA Volkswagen "installed software in the electronics control module (ECM) that sensed when the vehicle was being tested for compliance with EPA emission standards." "During EPA emission testing, the vehicles' ECM ran software which produced compliant emission results". "At all other times during normal operation" ... "software" ... "reduced the effectiveness of the emission control system (specifically the selective catalytic reduction or the lean NOx trap). As a result, emissions of NOx increased by a factor of 10 to 40 times above the EPA compliant levels".

So what does this mean for your Volkswagen? Both in vehicles equipped with selective catalytic reduction (SCR) and a lean NOx trap (LNT), Volkswagen can fix the problem by updating the ECM software.
As a result if your car has SCR then your car will start to consume a lot more reducer (Adblue). There will be no noticeable consequences for performance. Increased Adblue consumption of course will mean that the Adblue reservoir will have to be refilled more frequently.
On a car with a lean NOx trap (LNT), the car will have to burn off the trapped NOx more frequently, which is done using diesel fuel. As a consequence diesel fuel consumption will increase significantly without other consequences for performance. Volkswagen had trouble meeting emission standards when using their LNT technology. Most likely increased fuel consumption led to Volkswagen's decision to cheat the test.

Solar challenge shows potential for solar cars

Yesterday the team of the Eindhoven University of Technology won the solar challenge for 'family cars'. Earlier Delft and Twente won first and second in the race category.

Photo:Bart van Overbeeke, TU Eindhoven

The good thing about Eindhoven's car is that it is a 'normal' car. It has a licence plate and seating for four. Thanks to its solar panels it can drive all day on a single charge, although at limited speed. The race consisted of two stages of 1.500 km each, which were driven on an average speed of 76 km/h. From sunrise to sunset without refilling its battery. For a more northern country like the Netherlands, the range would be about 1.000 km per day. As the car boasts an electric battery as well, it would be possible to extend that range, or drive at higher speeds (up to 130 km/h) if the battery was refilled en route.

Photo:Bart van Overbeeke, TU Eindhoven

All in all this car shows that solar extended electric vehicles are ready to hit the market.

Cost of hydrogen

ITM Power signed an agreement with Toyota to supply hydrogen. This is the first time I know of a contract has been signed for public sale of hydrogen where the price is mentioned. The price is GBP 10/kg (€ 13,63 or $ 15,46). The Mirai can drive ~480 km on 5 kg, so that's a cost of € 0,14/km. In comparison a vehicle driving 20 km/liter of gasoline costing € 1,60 (Dutch price including high taxes) has a cost of only € 0,08/km. Prices will need to come down for hydrogen to become competitive. A target price for hydrogen is € 5/kg, which would be competitive.

Evolution towards a hydrogen economy

The hydrogen economy, once a visionary idea is slowly becoming a reality. It may not be obvious, but our economy is slowly evolving. It's a slow evolution not a revolutionary change. One of the telltale signs in the Netherlands where I live are government plans to change our natural gas law. They are changing the specifications of natural gas.

Why is this so important for a hydrogen economy? Natural gas is the main source of hydrogen today. Since hydrogen storage and distribution is so inconvenient and therefore expensive, we make hydrogen on-site using natural gas. If you say hydrogen, then that's a gas made from natural gas by steam reforming.

The changes to our law include the possibility to add more hydrogen to the natural gas grid. That means that it is now also possible to transport hydrogen by mixing it in the grid. That makes our gas grid the easiest an cheapest way to transport and store hydrogen, irrespective of how the hydrogen is produced.
The government is already looking forward to raising the allowed hydrogen concentration even further in the future even though that will mean that all our gas equipment will need to be modified. In the Netherlands natural gas is our main source of energy. This change is a critical step towards a hydrogen economy.

Once you add hydrogen to the gas grid that you can take it out again, either by steam reforming, or by separating it from the natural gas using a membrane. That means we can now hookup smaller local hydrogen networks as well.

Lower Dutch greenhouse gas emissions in 2014

The Dutch statistics bureau, CBS, released a press statement today containing new figures for Dutch greenhouse gas emissions in 2014 (not yet available in Dutch).
Dutch emissions were lower across the board, except for energy companies, which used more coal. Traffic related emissions have dropped 7% in accordance with IPCC methods. The CBS mentions two causes:
1. cars are more efficient and more often use alternative fuels such as electricity and CNG
2. more drivers refuel across the border after fuel taxes were increased.
When cars are filled up across the border the emissions count abroad. Electric driving reduces carbon emissions because the emissions for electricity production are counted towards energy companies and not to traffic.

Bosch's 48V mild hybrid system to debut this year

With so many innovative vehicle concepts testing the market we almost forget that most vehicles sold are still traditional gasoline vehicles. Such vehicles can be made more fuel-efficient by adding a mild hybrid system.

A new trend in the development of mild hybrid systems has been the use of 48 Volt lithium-ion batteries. These batteries replace lower voltage systems, often using 12V lead-acid batteries (or occasionally even nickel-metal hydride (NiMH) batteries). This has been made possible by advances and cost savings in li-ion technology. According to Just-Auto a 48V architecture provides about four times the energy recuperation from regenerative braking than is available on the traditional 12V system. Full hybrids use much higher voltages, for instance the Toyota Prius hybrid synergy drive uses a 220V battery.

Many automotive suppliers have jumped on the band-wagon, including Continental, Johnson Controls and Bosch.

Automotive news Europe interviewed Bosch executives about this subject recently. In 2013, GS Yuasa, Bosch and trading house Mitsubishi Corp. formed a joint venture to develop low-cost, high energy-density lithium ion batteries by 2020. A Bosch executive told Automotive news that they are "on a good path" toward their goal of developing a lithium ion battery that costs half as much as today's batteries but has twice the energy density.
Such advances will greatly popularize the use of hybrid and electric-only drive trains. Bosch expects such drive trains to account for 15 percent of the global automotive market by 2020. Mild hybrids are expected to break through with the introduction of 48V technology and could account for most of those vehicles.

Bosch also is rolling out a new 48 V mild-hybrid system this year that it says will improve fuel efficiency at minimal extra cost. Bosch has named its system "Boost Recuperation System" (BRS) which features an electric motor, with a 48V 0.25kWh lithium-ion battery and DC/DC converter. The system potentially reduces fuel consumption by 5 to 18%.
BRS offers four functions:
- coasting
- start-stop
- recuperation
- torque boost
When coasting and during start-stop the 48V battery keeps the car's electronics and climate control running. Recuperation enables the car to recover braking energy. The battery can provide the vehicle a torque boost of up to 10 kW. 
Bosch's system debuts this year in a nameplate for Europe offered by a European automaker, executives said. They declined to name the customer. Bosch aims to sell the mild hybrid system in other markets, including North America.

Dutch clean vehicle stimulus plans enable strong growth for FEVs and FCVs

Recently the Dutch State Secretary for Finance wrote a letter to parliament containing plans on clean vehicle stimulation for the period 2017-2020. His letter offers great potential for FCV (fuel cell vehicle) sales in the Netherlands. The Netherlands have the lowest average emissions for new vehicles sold in all of Europe thanks to generous stimulation for clean vehicles. Specifically fiscal stimulation is high for lease cars, which has led to plug-in hybrid vehicles becoming the most popular lease cars. This stimulation will remain intact for fully electric vehicles (FEVs) and FCVs, but the stimulation for plug-in hybrid vehicles will be phased out between now and 2019. This will lead to increased demand for FEVs and FCVs.

Starting 2019 however the stimulation for FEVs will only be applied to a sales value upto € 50.000. That will likely lead to a shift from FEVs to FCVs. Luxury FEV manufacturers (current FEV market leader is Tesla) would be wise to offer their models with a FC range extender.

If most of the current luxury FEV sales shift to FCVs in 2019, FCV sales could grow exponentially. A rough estimate of FCV sales:

2013      0

2014      2

2015    10

2016    30

2017  100

2018  300

2019 1.000

2020 1.500