Dutch clean vehicle stimulus plans enable strong growth for FEVs and FCVs

Recently the Dutch State Secretary for Finance wrote a letter to parliament containing plans on clean vehicle stimulation for the period 2017-2020. His letter offers great potential for FCV (fuel cell vehicle) sales in the Netherlands. The Netherlands have the lowest average emissions for new vehicles sold in all of Europe thanks to generous stimulation for clean vehicles. Specifically fiscal stimulation is high for lease cars, which has led to plug-in hybrid vehicles becoming the most popular lease cars. This stimulation will remain intact for fully electric vehicles (FEVs) and FCVs, but the stimulation for plug-in hybrid vehicles will be phased out between now and 2019. This will lead to increased demand for FEVs and FCVs.

Starting 2019 however the stimulation for FEVs will only be applied to a sales value upto € 50.000. That will likely lead to a shift from FEVs to FCVs. Luxury FEV manufacturers (current FEV market leader is Tesla) would be wise to offer their models with a FC range extender.

If most of the current luxury FEV sales shift to FCVs in 2019, FCV sales could grow exponentially. A rough estimate of FCV sales:

2013      0

2014      2

2015    10

2016    30

2017  100

2018  300

2019 1.000

2020 1.500

Efficient technology for hydrogen refueling

Dutch company Teesing is developing a more efficient technology for hydrogen refueling. Teesing is my former employer, but I am still involved in this project. Teesing's patented technology is used to transfer hydrogen from one storage (e.g. a refueling station) to another (e.g. a vehicle fuel storage tank). Until now hydrogen has to be pre-cooled using liquid nitrogen for fast refueling before it can be transferred. Teesing's new technology is more efficient, which makes cooling unnecessary. This results in a cheaper solution for fast refueling at pressures up to 700 bar.

Teesing's solution works by initially filling the target fuel tank with demineralised water which later is exchanged for 700 bar hydrogen. Because the exchange is made at a low pressure differential, much less energy is lost.

Aluminum batteries might find application in hybrids and FCVs

New publications about battery breakthroughs appear regularly in the media. In practice however not much has changed in the field of battery technology in the last few years. Recently Stanford University came up with a new story.

This time the story is about the aluminum-ion battery. Stanford has developed such a battery that they present as very promising. Of course they are looking for investors to help further develop this technology into actual products.

The main difference with the commonly used lithium-ion battery is the use of aluminum instead of lithium.

Advantages
Aluminum offers a number of advantages compared to lithium. Aluminum does not cause a fire hazard in case of incidents. Another important advantage is the shorter charge time: Stanford has succeeded in charging the battery in only a minute. Finally the battery has a much longer life time than lithium batteries. Standford's battery could withstand 7,500 cycles without capacity decay, where a typical lithium battery lasts about 1,000 cycles. Finally aluminum is also cheaper than lithium.

Disadvantage
The major disadvantage of the aluminum is the lower voltage, about half the voltage of a lithium battery. That also leads to lower battery energy density. In other words: more batteries are needed to store the same amount of energy. That is a key disadvantage which disqualifies this battery for most of the popular applications of lithium batteries, such as mobile devices and electric vehicles.

Applications
Still there are applications where the advantages of this aluminum battery seem more important than the disadvantage. Stanford suggests using this battery for storage of excess electricity from sustainable energy sources such as wind and solar. In such a stationary application the size of the battery stack is much less relevant and life time is more crucial.

Hybrid vehicles
Although aluminum seems unsuitable for electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids, I do see opportunities for vehicle applications. Hybrid vehicles without a plug such as the Toyota Prius have a relatively small battery which can be charged and uncharged multiple times during a single trip. And it is crucial that the battery can be charged quickly as this is needed to store breaking energy. The life time of lithium batteries in hybrid vehicles is a major bottleneck. In Toyota's hybrid synergy drive system the potential capacity of the batteries is only used for a small amount in order to extend battery life. In Honda's IMA (Integrated Motor Assist) system it is even worse. Battery failure is one of the main reasons why the IMA system is unsuccessful on the market. Aluminum batteries might offer new opportunities for such hybrid systems.

Fuel Cell Vehicles 
Another type of vehicles that might see use of this type of batteries is the Fuel Cell Vehicle. FCVs are in fact hybrid vehicles which use a lithium-ion battery to store energy which can be used to improve response to the gas pedal. The battery is charged from breaking energy or when you let go of the gas pedal because the fuel cell doesn't stop producing power immediately. Just like ordinary hybrid vehicles, FCVs have relatively small capacity batteries that are typically charged and uncharged multiple times during a single trip.

Dutch die 1 year early due to air pollution

A recent study by the Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) and Utrecht University shows the effect of air pollution on life expectancy in the Netherlands. Long-term (>5 years) exposure to particulate air pollution (PM10) and nitrogen dioxide was found to be associated with mortality. This was shown for total mortality as well as for mortality from respiratory diseases and lung cancer in the Netherlands. Furthermore, PM10 was associated with cardiovascular mortality.

In their studies the researchers used statistical data available from 7.2 million adults living in the Netherlands: all residents over 30 years who did not move for at least 5 years.

Until recently only levels of fine particulates have been used in calculations of premature deaths associated with air pollution in general. The study found that, in addition to the effect of fine particulates, nitrogen dioxide is also associated with premature deaths linked to air pollution.

The study also found an increased mortality risk for people under 65 while previously, it was thought that premature death due to the effects of air pollution occurred mainly in older people.

Using the numbers of this study Dutch environmental group Milieudefensie quantified the effects. PM10 pollution was shown to reduce life expectancy by 9 months while nitrogen dioxide exposure causes a 4 month reduction in life expectancy. One of the publishers of the RIVM article confirmed these findings in an interview. Milieudefensie calls for tougher regulations as they consider the effects of air pollution unacceptable.

Hyundai releases new European Tucson/ix35 FCV price

Earlier this month Hyundai announced to slash the Korean price of their Tucson Fuel Cell by 43% to the equivalent of US$ 77,000. Yesterday Hyundai announced the new price in Europe: € 55,000 (US$ 62,700). In the Netherlands that results in a consumer price of € 66,550 incl. VAT. In Europe the Tucson is called ix35. In comparison the Hyundai Fuel Cell is available in the USA for lease only at a monthly price of $ 499.

The new price is close to being a competitive offer to traditional cars with combustion engines. If Hyundai doesn't lose too much on it, it would mark a significant step towards making fuel cell vehicles competitive, although there still is a long way to go. The ix35 with combustion engine is available in the Netherlands at prices starting at € 27,495 (incl. VAT).

2014 good year for CNG in the Netherlands

Figures published by Aumacon show that CNG / green gas vehicles were the most popular alternative fueled vehicles in the Netherlands in 2014.

The largest vehicle category in the Netherlands in terms of sales remains the traditional gasoline car. 248,796 of these were sold in 2014. This is a drop of 6% compared to 2013. Traditional gasoline cars are slowly losing ground.
Diesel cars sales were better. 105,102 were sold in 2014, a growth of 1,5%.

The third category in the Netherlands in terms of sales is the hybrid vehicle (including plug-in hybrids and range extended electric vehicles). Compared to the top year 2013 sales decreased by 38% as a result of reduced fiscal stimulation. Despite this (as I wrote yesterday) the number of these vehicles on the road is still increasing.

Number four in the Netherlands in terms of cars on the road is LPG. Sales of LPG however are declining because the Dutch government no longer stimulates LPG despite verbally advocating its use. Sales dropped by 53% to 988. As a result the number of LPG vehicles on Dutch roads is decreasing. This is in sharp contrast to worldwide developments.

2014 was a great year for CNG / green gas vehicles. 3,232 CNG vehicles were sold, an increase of over 500% compared to 2013. Despite these impressive numbers CNG still has a long way to go to overtake LPG as the most popular alternative fuel.

Next are the fully electric cars. 2,982 of these were sold which is a 14% increase compared to 2013. Electric cars are slowly gaining market share.

Other than these fuels not much is happening in the Netherlands. When the first public hydrogen station was opened it was already known that the Dutch government would leased two Hyundai ix35's. No other hydrogen vehicles were registered in 2014.

The sale of cars on ethanol has come to a near complete stop in 2014: only one was sold compared to 17 in 2013.

Dutch electric vehicle registrations in 2014

The Dutch government has revealed registration numbers for electric vehicles in the Netherlands in 2014. The number of electric vehicles is still rising rapidly.

The number of fully electric passenger cars went up by 64% from 4,161 to 6,825. Especially the months of October and December saw a lot of new registrations. The number of registrations is often high in autumn in anticipation of increasingly strict requirements for fiscal stimuli.

While the number of plug-in hybrids went up almost sixfold in 2013, last year saw more normal, but still impressive growth. The number of plug-ins grew from 24,512 to 36,937 - a 51% growth rate. In contrast to electric vehicles, the number of new registrations in autumn was lower than average.

The number of electric light duty vehicles grew by an impressive 88% from 669 to 1,258. This makes this vehicle category the fastest growing. Here also October and December were top months. Both months saw more registrations than in the entire year of 2013.

The number of electric heavy duty vehicles and electric buses grew by 18% and 10% respectively. Most growth took place in the first four months of 2014. Possibly growth halted as a result of lower oilprices later in the year.

In terms of models, the Mitsubishi Outlander is the most popular plug-in hybrid vehicle. 15,725 of thse are now registered in the Netherlands. The second place is for the Volvo V60 with 9,707 registrations. The Opel Ampera is in third place.
The Tesla Model S is the most popular fully electric vehicle with 2,645 registrations, followed by the Nissan Leaf and Renault Zoe.

A striking development is that the number of normal hybrids (such as the Toyota Auris and Prius) is no logner growing. The number of registered vehicles rose by only 0.3%: almost as many hybrids were unregistered as registered. The number of these vehicles is however still almost three times higher than the number of plug-ins and fully electric vehicles combined.